Multilingual, Welsh national journalist with 27 years’ experience across TV, radio and digital.
Former Sky News and BBC correspondent.
Winner of the 2025 Welsh Investigative Journalism Fund.
I deliver authoritative, multilingual, on-the-ground coverage of Welsh politics and the Senedd elections for international audiences.
For over 100 year Labour has been THE party of Wales.
But this could well change in a few months with the new election for the Welsh Send - on 7th May 2026.
Pundits claim it will be the ‘biggest kicking’ for Keir Starmer’s Labour party who currently have over a 400 seat majority in UK’s Westminster Parliament.
Wales seems to have an appetite for ‘change’ - the nation has a desire something different. And end to the century long dominance of the Labour party.
Both Reform and Plaid Cymru and jostling in the polls with a claim to be the biggest party in Wales.
Why does this election matter - and what might it mean
for Europe?
Influence on UK-EU Alignment
Wales is highly integrated with European markets, with roughly 59% to 67% of its exports going to the EU. The 2026 election will determine which party directs the Senedd’s approach to post-Brexit regulatory alignment:
Labour & Plaid Cymru:
Historically, these parties have favoured closer alignment with EU standards to protect Welsh trade and simplify regulations for industries like agriculture, fisheries, and steel.
Reform UK:
Recent polling suggests a significant surge for Reform UK, which advocates for a more skeptical stance toward EU-derived regulations and could pressure the Senedd to deviate further from European standards.
Implementation of New UK-EU Agreements
A significant 2025 agreement, the Common Understanding, paves the way for new arrangements in trade, energy, and youth opportunities. The 2026 election will determine the administration responsible for implementing these devolved responsibilities, which include:
Energy: Collaborative energy projects that could link Wales to European energy grids.
Trade: Managing the "Trade and Cooperation Agreement" (TCA), which faces a major five-year implementation review in 2026.
Independence and Rejoining the EU
The election results will gauge the strength of the Welsh independence movement, which is closely tied to European membership:
Plaid Cymru’s Vision:
The party views independence as a path for Wales to eventually rejoin the EU independently of the rest of the UK.
Referendum Outlook:
While Plaid Cymru has moved away from a hard 2026 deadline for an independence referendum, a strong performance could accelerate demands for more devolved powers or a "Celtic Union" partnership to mitigate Brexit's impacts.
Direct European Representation
The Senedd itself is undergoing a major expansion from 60 to 96 Members (MSs) to increase its capacity for legislative scrutiny, bringing it more in line with the size of other European regional parliaments like those in Scotland or Northern Ireland.
This larger body will have a greater ability to engage with European sub-national entities and participate in international benchmarking of best practices in health, education, and climate policy.